Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
13
แน€706
2027
21%
chance

Many articles claim that nutritionists have been hiding the fact that despite all expectations, their surveys reveal that ice cream is actually good for you! But the truth is finally coming out, and this conspiracy will end. Will this be the consensus view as of end of 2025?

Scenarios for YES - any of these

  • major popular media or journalistic outlets seriously say that this is accepted

  • scientific nutrition journals say that this is well-known and understood phenomena with understanding based on at least 2 papers

  • thousands of people explicitly follow a diet which includes ice cream as a health food

  • ice cream-derived vitamins or supplements claiming to incorporate its beneficial aspects become popular and are widely available at pharmacies, etc.

I will not bet in this market and my overall goal is to evaluate whether recent claims that ice cream actually isn't bad are substantiated and have become mainstream views.

Judging by what the top LLMs say at the time + my opinion.

Overall, if we say the acceptance of this idea is at 10% today, if by end of claim we are at 50%+ acceptance in the US English language media, this resolves YES. Otherwise NO.

Currenly, querying GPT4 reveal an estimate of approx 10-20% as the confidence level for scientific journals, when prompted with

evaluate what various journals would think of the hypothesis that ice cream is actually health in this format: {"confidence": <0-100%>, "reasons": "text", "other info and comment: "<text2>"} for each of: Ny times ny post the economist WSJ China Daily Nature Science A popular nutrition journal A college professor of nutrition from a mediocre university An alternative, gestalt healer from germany who has surprisingly effective, if unexplained, methods of history

"So far, there are just a few articles, one in "the atlantic" and other brief mentions from non-mainstream nutritionists that this may be true. There is a single rumored study that there may be a hypothetical explanation, but overall this is not certain at all now. Could you re-generate the output based on this state of affairs, basing it on the estimate of these outlets current possible opinions, as best as you can?" and then supplying a list of newspapers and journals. The newspaper estimates are from 10-40% based on the sensationalism levels, but "Science" and "Nature" are both described as

at EOY 2026 we will take the most updated available LLM <100$/month to access, either local or remote, and ask it, assuming that data is relatively well-updated within it. If it's not updated, I will feed it the latest papers on this subject but hopefully they will already be included.

Overall, it will be hard to get a YES unless there is quite significant scientific movement in this direction from at least a serious sub-community; but even if the most mainstream views haven't changed, a demonstration of effect & wide popularity and acceptance of the view from the public and some professionals could be enough to generate a YES.

Bonus: For each person who contributes a funny image which illustrates this concept, I will contribute 100m subsidy to the market, up to 10k/month total across all my markets.

Get แน€600 play money
Sort by:

I have a related market asking why we see this correlation in some studies.

/MartinRandall/why-is-ice-cream-consumption-correl

"Create a humorous illustration of a doctor in a clinic prescribing ice cream to a patient. The scene should be playful and light-hearted, with the doctor holding a prescription pad that humorously lists 'Ice Cream' as the medicine. The patient should be depicted with a surprised yet delighted expression. The clinic setting should include health charts and posters in the background, subtly hinting at the health benefits of ice cream. The overall design should be colorful, engaging, and convey the whimsical idea that ice cream is being recommended for health."