Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS? | Manifold

Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?

27

100Ṁ1653

2028

1D

1W

1M

ALL

60%

Trump wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan

40%

Trump wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan

0.1%

Harris wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan

0.3%

Harris wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan

2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ264 NO

@WieDan "Harris wins" options resolve NO

bought Ṁ100 YES

@puffymist I can't do that unfortunately.

bought Ṁ20 NO

How does this resolve if:

The term of the next POTUS ends before the invasion?
The invasion is carried out by a different leader than Xi?

I should have ritten China instead of Xi I will change te title.
As for president ending term early (so death?) I think an invasion after should not count.

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