What will happen during FIDE Candidates Tournament 2024?
51
780
7.6K
Apr 23
14%
Somebody gains 25 rating points (can be at any point during tournament)
85%
e4 will be played more than all other first moves combined
27%
At least one of the favorites (Caruana, Nakamura, Nepomniachtchi) will finish the tournament with minus score
38%
Praggnanandhaa will perform best out of all Indian players (including tiebreaks))
60%
There will be at least two rounds with no decisive games
47%
American players will have better average final placement than top 2 Indian players
62%
Firouzja or Gukesh will have (or be tied for) largest number of decisive games at the end of round robin
98.2%
Player with no previous Candidate experience will finish in top 3
32%
Winner will have at least 1 point lead in the standings at the end
60%
Ian Nepomniachtchi will have at least 1 hour more time than his opponent before move 40 in any game.
18%
Chess.com or chess24 English broadcast reaches 60k+ concurrent viewers on Twitch
33%
Fabiano Caruana loses at least one game with white
64%
Fabiano Caruana loses more than one game
21%
Tournament winner wraps up the tournament before round 13
70%
A player has a snarky retort to a journalist in the post-game interview
13%
In the women section Vaishali finishes in the upper half of the table (incl. tiebreaks)
99.7%
Magnus Carlsen maintains his number 1 position in the 2700chess.com classical chess ratings list throughout the event
24%
A player wins three consecutive games
70%
Tournament winner has a TPR of less than 2900
31%
Two or more players tie for first place after round 14 necessitating a tiebreak

Candidate Tournament will be played on April 3-22 to determine World Chess Championship Challenger for Ding Liren.

Tournament info: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

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You are welcome to add your own options.

Rules:

  • All options refer to the main (Open) Candidates 2024 tournament unless said otherwise

  • I will be betting if the option has objective resolution criteria. If there is any uncertainty I can ask mods to decide resolution instead.

  • If you are unsure about some underspecified option, ask in the comments before betting

  • Options should have some connection to the Candidates tournament.

  • Unless stated otherwise options include ties by default (Added 4/4/24)

    • For example: If there are two players X and Y leading the tournament and the option is "player X is leading the tournament at any point" that resolves yes.

  • Dictionary (will be updates if needed):

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Praggnanandhaa will perform best out of all Indian players (including tiebreaks))
bought Ṁ36 Praggnanandhaa will ... NO

does this account for ties/tiebreaks?

@diadematus yes, edited

someone leading after round 7 (it was Nepo) wins the tournament

what does this mean? like someone leading any round after round 7 wins the tournament? this will obviously happen?

bought Ṁ408 Hikaru will have pos... YES

@diadematus This should mean leading immediately after round 7 (not in later rounds), in this case it is Nepo.

American players will have better average final placement than top 2 Indian players

does this account for ties?

bought Ṁ25 Tournament winner wr... NO

@Weezing I will consider all tied players to have same spot (average of shared spots).

reposted

The tournament is half way through and I added ~10 more options yesterday (you can sort by new to see them).

Someone flags

Gukesh flagged vs Alireza

Player with no previous Candidate experience will finish in top 3
bought Ṁ150 Player with no previ... YES

Since this includes ties, and Firouzja is basically out, this seems pretty likely. The only way for it not to happen is for Nepo/Caruana/Nakamura to be top 3 (in any order), with no one tied with them.

Any GothamChess Candidates recap video will get 500k+ views before the tournament ends
Chess.com or chess24 English broadcast reaches 60k+ concurrent viewers on Twitch

Is this refering to the chess.com channel coverage of the women's Candidates tournament, or the chess24- channel (owned by chess.com) coverage of the open Candidates?

@Sindre I consider both of them chess.com broadcasts (I didn't know they will stream on 2 channels when creating this question). So if one of them reaches 60k than it resolves YES. But they do not add up.

@Weezing great.

I just realized they also offer separate broadcasts of the candidates in Italian, German, French, Turkish, Polish, Armenian, Spanish (and probably others) with an accumulated ~8k viewers right now. Really cool to see.

Peter Leko commentates at least one round in a livestream
bought Ṁ700 Peter Leko commentat... YES

He is risen!

@Sindre Leko, Tania and Danya commentary! Am I in heaven?

Hikaru youtube grind continues even after a crushing loss. I can’t believe it

bought Ṁ10 Hikaru finishes in t... NO

@diadematus I think only time he didnt upload recap immediately last Candidates was the loss again Ding in the final round. And he lost multiple games.

There was a Jobava London played in the women's section. Does that count as a London opening being played?

@NathanShowell No, by defaul options refer to Open section only.

A player directly complains about the amenities or hotel
bought Ṁ119 A player directly co... YES

@Weezing does this by Fabi count - https://youtu.be/tD_0jhk-cwA?t=1039?

Hikaru will have positive score against Caruana

does this resolve to 0% or 50% if they are tied

bought Ṁ10 There will be at lea... YES
Nijat Abasov starts the tournament with 2 straight losses
bought Ṁ500 Nijat Abasov starts ... NO

this resolves NO already

someone leading after round 7 (it was Nepo) wins the tournament

Of there are players with same number of points after round 7, I mean any of them.

bought Ṁ10 The same set of play... YES

@Mich Thanks for the submissions. I reworded slightly some of them to be hopefully easier to understand at first glance.

@Weezing Yeah that’s better this way, thanks !