Candidate Tournament will be played on April 3-22 to determine World Chess Championship Challenger for Ding Liren.
Tournament info: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament
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You are welcome to add your own options.
Rules:
All options refer to the main (Open) Candidates 2024 tournament unless said otherwise
I will be betting if the option has objective resolution criteria. If there is any uncertainty I can ask mods to decide resolution instead.
If you are unsure about some underspecified option, ask in the comments before betting
Options should have some connection to the Candidates tournament.
Unless stated otherwise "highest" includes ties (Added 19/4/24)
Unless stated otherwise options include ties by default (Added 4/4/24)
For example: If there are two players X and Y leading the tournament and the option is "player X is leading the tournament at any point" that resolves yes.
Dictionary (will be updates if needed):
Minus (-)/Plus (+) score: Draw is 0, win is +1, loss is -1. Sum of all results of the player determines their score.
Rating points = live FIDE ELO rating determined by https://2700chess.com/
A decisive game: win or loss
TPR - Tournament performance rating (https://www.hirmulintu.fi/juha/chess/en/performance_calculator.shtml)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,140 | |
| 2 | Ṁ670 | |
| 3 | Ṁ562 | |
| 4 | Ṁ340 | |
| 5 | Ṁ314 |
People are also trading
Made a similar market for Norway Chess - tournament with Magnus, Ding, Caruana, Hikaru, Alireza and Pragg which will take place in a month from now.
https://manifold.markets/Weezing/what-will-happen-in-norway-chess-to
@Weezing https://candidates2024.fide.com/crosstable shows Hikaru and Fabi placing 2nd and 4th, and Gukesh and Pragg placing 1st and 5th. That would give the americans the same average placement in my view, and having the same placement is not "better", so I would resolve this NO.
@BoltonBailey Both Hikaru and Fabi finished essentially tied 2nd but the 1st tiebreak being used is Sonneborn-Berger where Fabi lags behind both Hikaru and Ian. Hikaru is only ahead of Ian because of number of wins as their SB score is same.
Either way, I'm OK with No resolution as technically it is same average placement. @Weezing
@VaibhavGupta so you bet on it thinking that it counts as 2nd place for all of them instead of shared 2-4th place?
I will resolve this N/A. Technically correct resolution is NO (according to my earlier comments) and normally I would chose that, but since almost no one has bet on the other side (me, 2 bots and 2 other users (@MichaelPrendergast @Sindre) with very small amounts), I think it's better to avoid ~1500 mana from 2/3 people being burned (not being gained by anyone) due to misreading/misunderstanding the question. I think in this special case it is warranted.
I will send ~40 mana they would make in profit to the NO non-bot bettors via managram, so they do not feel like they are losing that.
@Weezing thanks. Yeah, i mostly bet on it at the beginning of the tournament, so a coinflip tiebreak technicality wasn't really a part of my reasoning. In any case, N/A seems very fair.
Anyone noticed any comments of that nature?
@benshindel You mean this comment - https://manifold.markets/Weezing/what-will-happen-during-candidates#duy2d68kdck? Why do you think so? Americans have a average 3 and Indians also 3.
I might N/A this, people seem to misunderstood it.