What will happen in Norway Chess tournament? Prop Bets
Mini
46
25k
resolved Jun 7
Resolved
NO
Carlsen does not lose an Armageddon game
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
Ding Liren wins a classical game
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
Top 3 is Carlsen, Nakamura and Caruana in any order
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Ding Liren finishes last
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
Firouzja has the most decisive games in the classical portion
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
More than 60% matches reach Armageddon phase
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Carlsen loses at least 1 classical game
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
Somebody draws all of their classical games
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
There is a game with 100+ moves
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
Carlsen finishes with negative rating points in classical
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Someone's classical TPR is over 2850
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Player who first gains sole lead (it was magnus) wins the tournament
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
The King's Indian Defence is played in the classical portion
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Every player wins at least 1 game
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Every player loses at least 1 game
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
There will be tiebreaker games for the first place
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Winner will win have more Armageddon wins than classical wins
·
2mo
Resolved
NO
Someone is at -20 rating points at any point
·
2mo
Resolved
50%
Ruy Lopez is played more than Sicilian Defense + Petrov defense combined
·
2mo
Resolved
YES
Alireza does not finish with negative score in classical
·
2mo

You are welcome to add more options.

Norway Chess tournament will be played between May 27 and June 7.

There are 6 players:

  • Magnus Carlsen (Norway)

  • Fabiano Caruana (USA)

  • Hikaru Nakamura (USA)

  • World champion, Ding Liren (China)

  • Alireza Firouzja (France)

  • Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (India)

Format is a double round robin. Each match they play a classical game. If that ends in a draw they play Armageddon game (a rapid game where the player with white has more time, but if the game is drawn the black player wins).

Win in classical is +3, win in the armageddon is +1.5 and loss in armageddon is +1.

More info: https://norwaychess.no/

===================================

Rules:

  • All options refer to the main (open) section of the tournament unless said otherwise

  • I will be betting if the option has objective resolution criteria. If there is any uncertainty I can ask mods to decide resolution instead.

  • If you are unsure about some underspecified option, ask in the comments before betting

  • Unless stated otherwise "highest"/"most"/"least" etc. includes ties ("Player has the most points at the end")

  • Options that refer to final rankings include tiebreaks

  • Options that involve rankings do not count rankings mid game, we always wait untill full round finishes

  • For Armageddon games, game outcome is what is importsnt, not state on the board, so if black has draw odds and it's draw (black player thus won the match), it counts as win for the market purposes ("win x games").

  • Dictionary (will be updates if needed):

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Every player loses at least 1 game
bought Ṁ100 Every player loses a... YES

Is this fulfilled, or am I misunderstanding the question?

@Sindre yes it is

sold Ṁ26 Ding Liren wins a cl... NO

The tournament begins today!

And there is also market for the winner: https://manifold.markets/Sindre/who-will-win-the-2024-norway-chess-d8711cd4e8e4

Relevant:

Carlsen does not lose an Armageddon game

I have two questions about that one :

  • If Carlsen doesn’t play any Armageddon game, how does this resolve ? (As a math student I’d intuitively say YES because any statement starting by « for any x belonging to the empty set » is true but I’m not sure that’s intended this way)

  • Does a draw on the board with black pieces count as a win ? Since it’s a draw on the board but a win for scoring

@Mich Good questions.

Draw with black pieces counts as a win in Armageddon. Outcome of the match is what matters.

I will reword it to "does not lose an armageddon game", so it's more intuitive. Then it is clear that if there are none, it resolves yes.