You are welcome to add more options.
Norway Chess tournament will be played between May 27 and June 7.
There are 6 players:
Magnus Carlsen (Norway)
Fabiano Caruana (USA)
Hikaru Nakamura (USA)
World champion, Ding Liren (China)
Alireza Firouzja (France)
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (India)
Format is a double round robin. Each match they play a classical game. If that ends in a draw they play Armageddon game (a rapid game where the player with white has more time, but if the game is drawn the black player wins).
Win in classical is +3, win in the armageddon is +1.5 and loss in armageddon is +1.
More info: https://norwaychess.no/
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Rules:
All options refer to the main (open) section of the tournament unless said otherwise
I will be betting if the option has objective resolution criteria. If there is any uncertainty I can ask mods to decide resolution instead.
If you are unsure about some underspecified option, ask in the comments before betting
Unless stated otherwise "highest"/"most"/"least" etc. includes ties ("Player has the most points at the end")
Options that refer to final rankings include tiebreaks
Options that involve rankings do not count rankings mid game, we always wait untill full round finishes
For Armageddon games, game outcome is what is importsnt, not state on the board, so if black has draw odds and it's draw (black player thus won the match), it counts as win for the market purposes ("win x games").
Dictionary (will be updates if needed):
Minus (-)/Plus (+) score: Draw is 0, win is +1, loss is -1. Sum of all results of the player determines their score.
Rating points = live FIDE ELO rating determined by https://2700chess.com/
A decisive game: win or loss
TPR - Tournament performance rating (https://www.hirmulintu.fi/juha/chess/en/performance_calculator.shtml)
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,077 | |
| 2 | Ṁ517 | |
| 3 | Ṁ277 | |
| 4 | Ṁ152 | |
| 5 | Ṁ99 |
The tournament begins today!
And there is also market for the winner: https://manifold.markets/Sindre/who-will-win-the-2024-norway-chess-d8711cd4e8e4
I have two questions about that one :
If Carlsen doesn’t play any Armageddon game, how does this resolve ? (As a math student I’d intuitively say YES because any statement starting by « for any x belonging to the empty set » is true but I’m not sure that’s intended this way)
Does a draw on the board with black pieces count as a win ? Since it’s a draw on the board but a win for scoring
@Mich Good questions.
Draw with black pieces counts as a win in Armageddon. Outcome of the match is what matters.
I will reword it to "does not lose an armageddon game", so it's more intuitive. Then it is clear that if there are none, it resolves yes.