What will happen in Norway Chess tournament? Prop Bets
11
72
แน€1.2K
Jun 9
54%
Carlsen does not lose an Armageddon game
41%
Ding Liren wins a classical game
33%
Top 3 is Carlsen, Nakamura and Caruana in any order
30%
Ding Liren finishes last
66%
Firouzja has the most decisive games in the classical portion
66%
More than 60% matches reach Armageddon phase
28%
Carlsen loses at least 1 classical game
34%
Somebody draws all of their classical games
59%
There is a game with 100+ moves
66%
Carlsen finishes with negative rating points
76%
Someone's classical TPR is over 2850
66%
Player who first gains sole lead wins the tournament
24%
The King's Indian Defence is played in the classical portion
45%
Every player wins at least 1 game
48%
Every player loses at least 1 game
39%
There will be tiebreaker games for the first place
27%
Winner will win have more Armageddon wins than classical wins
18%
Someone is at -20 rating points at any point
34%
Ruy Lopez is played more than Sicilian Defense + Petrov defense combined
37%
Alireza does not finish with negative score

You are welcome to add more options.

Norway Chess tournament will be played between May 27 and June 7.

There are 6 players:

  • Magnus Carlsen (Norway)

  • Fabiano Caruana (USA)

  • Hikaru Nakamura (USA)

  • World champion, Ding Liren (China)

  • Alireza Firouzja (France)

  • Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (India)

Format is a double round robin. Each match they play a classical game. If that ends in a draw they play Armageddon game (a rapid game where the player with white has more time, but if the game is drawn the black player wins).

Win in classical is +3, win in the armageddon is +1.5 and loss in armageddon is +1.

More info: https://norwaychess.no/

===================================

Rules:

  • All options refer to the main (open) section of the tournament unless said otherwise

  • I will be betting if the option has objective resolution criteria. If there is any uncertainty I can ask mods to decide resolution instead.

  • If you are unsure about some underspecified option, ask in the comments before betting

  • Unless stated otherwise "highest"/"most"/"least" etc. includes ties ("Player has the most points at the end")

  • Options that refer to final rankings include tiebreaks

  • Options that involve rankings do not count rankings mid game, we always wait untill full round finishes

  • For Armageddon games, game outcome is what is importsnt, not state on the board, so if black has draw odds and it's draw (black player thus won the match), it counts as win for the market purposes ("win x games").

  • Dictionary (will be updates if needed):

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Carlsen does not lose an Armageddon game

I have two questions about that one :

  • If Carlsen doesnโ€™t play any Armageddon game, how does this resolve ? (As a math student Iโ€™d intuitively say YES because any statement starting by ยซย for any x belonging to the empty setย ยป is true but Iโ€™m not sure thatโ€™s intended this way)

  • Does a draw on the board with black pieces count as a win ? Since itโ€™s a draw on the board but a win for scoring

@Mich Good questions.

Draw with black pieces counts as a win in Armageddon. Outcome of the match is what matters.

I will reword it to "does not lose an armageddon game", so it's more intuitive. Then it is clear that if there are none, it resolves yes.