FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 12 Bets
24
254
4.3K
resolved Apr 19
Resolved
YES
Someone catches up to Nepo
Resolved
YES
Hikaru or Gukesh win
Resolved
YES
Indian player wins
Resolved
NO
3 or more draws
Resolved
YES
3 or more decisive games
Resolved
NO
Nepo wins against Pragg
Resolved
YES
Hikaru wins against Firouzja
Resolved
NO
Abasov does not lose to Gukesh
Resolved
YES
Caruana wins against Vidit
Resolved
YES
American player wins
Resolved
NO
A rating underdog (official Elo) wins a game
Resolved
YES
White wins more games than black
Resolved
NO
Vidit wins against Caruana
Resolved
NO
Alireza wins against Hikaru
Resolved
NO
Pragg wins against Nepo
Resolved
NO
4 draws
Resolved
NO
A game lasts more than 60 moves
Resolved
YES
An exchange sacrifice is played
Resolved
NO
Vidit will take 1 hour or more for the first 15 moves
Resolved
NO
Someone is down 2+ points worth of material for at least 3 continuous moves

You are welcome to add your own options.

Games start 18th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~33 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.

Games can be followed here: https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2024--open/round-12/eJghIBZe

Matches are (white vs black):

  • Hikaru Nakamura vs Alireza Fizrouzja

  • Ian Nepomniachtchi vs Praggnanandhaa R

  • Fabiano Caruana vs Vidit Gujrathi

  • Nijat Abasov vs Gukesh D

Event info + standings: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

One of the broadcasts will be streamed here: https://www.twitch.tv/chess24

General rules:

  • When referring to rankings, final rankings after the round is over are are used unless specified otherwise

  • For options that are hard to verify ("X is said on broadcast"), I will give time for people to post evidence for YES and if there is none, it will be resolved NO.

  • Options refer to Open section unless stated otherwise

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
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bought Ṁ25 Gukesh or Vidit blun... YES

@Weezing Rest of the options here will be resolved later

Nepo's odds on https://manifold.markets/diadematus/who-will-win-the-2024-fide-candidat go below 40% at any point up to 1 hour after the final game [be careful, it can be manipulated]

wait, I just realized this could be easily gamed @Weezing

@diadematus yes it can be and there is not much we can do about that. I guess we can N/A it, if you want, because you can never bet it low, because then someone can just buy NO over there, sell and collect profit here.

@Weezing but volume here will be probably not be high enough for it to be worth it

@Weezing okay...i generally don't think anyone here is that mana hungry, but just in case we can add an implied 'reserve the right to n/a' if clear gamification

@diadematus I added warning that it can be manipulated. If nobody bets too much money there it should be fine.

Abasov does not lose to Gukesh
bought Ṁ15 Abasov does not lose... NO

this is the single most high-conviction 'NO' I will place all tournament

@diadematus Why? Because he could be tilted after last 2 rounds?

bought Ṁ120 3 or more decisive g... YES

@Weezing tournament situation plus Gukesh is pretty good at going for broke so Abasov can't try his drawish hijinks

bought Ṁ10 There is a decisive ... NO

@diadematus It's true that Gukesh is expert at beating 2600s.

Four decisive games
bought Ṁ3 Four decisive games YES

Today I could see there being 3-4 decisive games. A lot of players need win to keep their chances alive.

bought Ṁ35 Abasov does not lose... NO

@Weezing Yeah, I just scanned the pairings and every game is high stakes

Nudge to move the closing time

@Sindre fixed