FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 13 Bets
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resolved Apr 21
Resolved
YES
Someone takes sole lead
Resolved
NO
2 players are tied for first place at the end
Resolved
YES
Indian player wins
Resolved
NO
3 or more draws
Resolved
NO
3 or more decisive games
Resolved
NO
Nepo wins against Hikaru
Resolved
YES
Caruana wins against Pragg
Resolved
YES
Abasov does not lose against Vidit
Resolved
YES
Gukesh wins against Firouzja
Resolved
YES
American player wins
Resolved
YES
A rating underdog (official Elo) wins a game
Resolved
NO
White wins more games than black
Resolved
NO
Hikaru wins against Nepo
Resolved
NO
Pragg wins against Caruana
Resolved
NO
Firouzja wins against Gukesh
Resolved
YES
A game lasts more than 60 moves
Resolved
YES
An exchange sacrifice is played
Resolved
YES
There are 2 sets of doubled pawns on one of the boards
Resolved
YES
Short castle vs long castle game
Resolved
N/A
There is a game with at least a 100 centipawn advantage (+1 or -1, depth 30) by move 16

You are welcome to add your own options.

Games start 20th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~42 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.

Games can be followed here: https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2024--open/round-13/Dc0DQMaQ

Event info + standings: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

One of the broadcasts will be streamed here: https://www.twitch.tv/chess24

General rules:

  • When referring to rankings, final rankings after the round is over are are used unless specified otherwise

  • For options that are hard to verify ("X is said on broadcast"), I will give time for people to post evidence for YES and if there is none, it will be resolved NO.

  • Options refer to Open section unless stated otherwise

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are you fine holding off resolving this till tomorrow @Weezing ? I dozzed off but can replay the half of the broadcast i missed early tomorrow and help resolve it

@diadematus Definitely, I usually do that to give people time to provide evidence for yes.

@Weezing ended up putting myself through the entire 2nd half of the stream and Danya was incredibly restrained, only namedropping Petrosian and Sherlock Holmes so unless otherwise this should resolve NO

resolves yes @Weezing

bought Ṁ138 NO

My 'lock of the day' is Fabi is absolutely not beating Pragg in that structure. Literally zero chance. So if Gukesh or Naka somehow win, he's out

bought Ṁ31 NO
bought Ṁ335 YES

Pragg-Fabi has pawns on c6, c5, c4 and c2

bought Ṁ10 YES

what depth are we using here?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@diadematus depth 30

sold Ṁ9 YES

@Weezing stockfish depth 30 on lichess says Nepo would have a +1.0 advantage if Hikaru plays Nf4 but it drops to +0.8 at depth 43.

@diadematus there's a way to replay the stockfish jumps anyway so it's nbd

@diadematus yea that's normal that it changes, that's why I always want to have specified depth for this stuff. But he didnt play it yet.

bought Ṁ79 YES

@Weezing i had to double check the meaning of "by move 16" but this counts, right?

@diadematus Not sure, "by X" usually means it must be true when X happens and this only happened on second move on move 16. Maybe N/A?

@Weezing "by" is quite ambiguous e.g https://ell.stackexchange.com/questions/87002/what-does-by-mean-if-we-are-talking-about-a-date but in the case was the intention to mean "before"?

@Weezing chatgpt and claude are both in agreement (that chess moves are counted in pairs)

@diadematus Yea, it seems like it's confusing, that's why I prefer to N/A.

bought Ṁ66 YES

@Weezing yeah, N/A makes sense

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