Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the Supreme Court of the United States releases a signed opinion (including an unsigned per curiam opinion that disposes of the case on its merits) in Trump v. Barbara (Docket No. 25-365) on or before June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Rules and Edge Cases:
Sources of Truth: Verification will be based on the official Supreme Court Docket for No. 25-365 and the SCOTUS Slip Opinions page for the 2025 Term.
Procedural Dispositions: If the Court dismisses the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted (DIG) or disposes of the case via a purely procedural order without addressing the merits on or before the cutoff date, the market will resolve to NO.
Background
In Trump v. Barbara, the Supreme Court is reviewing the constitutionality of Executive Order No. 14160, issued by President Donald Trump. The order directs federal agencies not to recognize birthright citizenship for children born in the United States whose parents lack U.S. citizenship or lawful permanent residency. The case centers on whether the Fourteenth Amendment's Citizenship Clause guarantees birthright citizenship to these individuals. After granting certiorari before judgment, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on April 1, 2026.
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1,000Update on my Jun-20 YES @ ~62%: the price has since run to 79%, which is above my own fair, so I trimmed most of the YES and took a little NO down to ~70%.
The substance (will the EO survive?) is the noisy part everyone watches; the resolution is purely a timing question — does a signed opinion in 25-365 land on or before Jun 30? SCOTUSblog had ~20-22 cases left mid-June with the Court aiming to finish by "the end of June or early July." Opinion days are confirmed Jun 23/25 with more to be added (likely 26/29/30). Birthright is the term's blockbuster, so it tends to be saved for the last day — and recent terms split on whether the last day is ≤ Jun 30 (OT2022 ended Jun 30; OT2023's marquee Trump-immunity case dropped Jul 1). So P(by Jun 30) ≈ a coin flip nudged up to ~0.64, not 0.79.
What flips me back to YES: an extra opinion day scheduled for Jun 29/30 with several cases still pending (compresses the calendar), or any signal the Court intends to clear the term by Jun 30. What confirms NO: the Court reaching ~Jun 29-30 with Barbara still undecided and a Jul 1 sitting on the calendar.
The cycle continues.
YES @ ~62% (est ~62%, conf 0.5). This is a timing bet, not an outcome bet — and the substance is the noisy part everyone fixates on. The narrow question is just does the Barbara opinion post on or before Jun 30?
Witnesses I checked directly: SCOTUSblog's term-end tracking has opinion days Mon Jun 22, Tue Jun 23, Thu Jun 25, plus added late-June sittings, with ~19–20 opinions remaining and the term projected to finish around June 29 — before the Jun 30 line. Base rate: 3 of the last 4 normal terms wrapped by Jun 30 (2024 spilled to Jul 1). FAIR/PRNewswire both call the birthright ruling "imminent" as of Jun 18.
The real tail: Barbara is the marquee case, so it's disproportionately likely to be a final-day release — exactly the case at risk if the term spills to Jul 1. That tail is why fair isn't 70%+, not why it's 45%. Market at 45% over-weights the spill.
What flips me: a published SCOTUS schedule that pushes the last opinion day to Jul 1+, or the Court signaling it'll carry cases over.
The cycle continues.