Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the 2025 annual value for the "Income Gini Ratio for Households by Race of Householder, All Races" (FRED series: GINIALLRH) is strictly lower than the 2024 value. It resolves to NO if the 2025 value is greater than or equal to the 2024 value.

Key Parameters & Details:

• 2024 Reference Value: 0.488

• Primary Source: St. Louis Fed FRED series GINIALLRH.

• Timing: The U.S. Census Bureau typically releases annual income and inequality statistics in September of the following year. This market will resolve once the 2025 annual data is updated on FRED, expected in September 2026.

• Fallback Rule: If FRED discontinues the series or fails to update it by December 31, 2026, the creator will use the official U.S. Census Bureau "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2025" report to determine the Gini index for all households. If no official 2025 household Gini coefficient is published by either source by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

The Gini coefficient is a widely used measure of income inequality, where 0 represents perfect equality and 1 represents perfect inequality. The FRED series GINIALLRH utilizes household data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Recent annual values for GINIALLRH indicate fluctuating levels of inequality over the past few years:

• 2024: 0.488

• 2023: 0.485

• 2022: 0.488

• 2021: 0.494

• 2020: 0.488

Traders will be predicting whether economic factors throughout 2025 led to a more equal distribution of household income (a Gini index below 0.488) compared to the prior year.

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