Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before February 28, 2027 (11:59 PM UTC), Manifold Markets officially implements a platform-wide ban or halts all new wagers on the death of individual humans (commonly referred to as "death markets").

To qualify for a YES resolution, this policy shift must be officially communicated or enacted through one of the following:

• An official announcement on the Manifold Discord or the Manifold Changelog/Blog declaring a ban on creating or betting on markets predicting the death, assassination, or survival of specific, individual human beings.

• An update to the official Manifold Community Guidelines or Terms of Service explicitly prohibiting markets that forecast the death of individual human beings.

This market resolves to NO if, as of 11:59 PM UTC on February 28, 2027, users are still permitted to create and trade on markets forecasting the death or survival of specific, individual humans.

Clarifications and Edge Cases:

• Restrictions that only apply to real-money or sweepstakes features but still permit "death markets" using standard play-money (Mana) will resolve as NO. The ban must apply to all wagering on individual deaths across the platform.

• Bans that are highly specific—such as only banning death markets on non-public figures while still allowing them for public figures (e.g., politicians or celebrities)—will resolve as NO. The policy must be a general, platform-wide prohibition on wagering on individual human deaths.

• If Manifold Markets ceases operations entirely before February 28, 2027, this market will resolve as N/A.

Background

"Death markets" on Manifold Markets are user-generated markets where participants wager virtual currency (Mana) on the survival, assassination, or time of death of public figures. While some users view these markets as aggregators of useful public information and actuarial data, they have sparked persistent ethical and optical controversies. Critics argue that betting on the deaths of individual humans is in poor taste and could theoretically create misaligned incentives, prompting periodic community debates over whether the platform should ban them outright.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

• Update 2026-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves YES if a ban is in place on February 28, 2027, regardless of whether the ban is later lifted. A ban implemented before that date but removed March 1st or after would still count as YES.