Non-response bias

@anglospherepoliticsguy Meaning? People who give no response are part of a particular political party? Or people don’t answer cell phones as often as those with landlines? Or?

@Web3ICP Phone polls are getting lower and lower response rates (partly because people don't answer unknown numbers on cell phones, yes), and most pollsters are moving to online panels which have their own problem with non-representative samples.

Meanwhile, Democrats are doing way better with highly-educated voters, and in 2020/2022/2024 (though not 2016/2018 and it looks like probably not 2026) trading younger voters for older voters, and even controlling for education and age, gaining more with highly politically-engaged and high social trust people. This means that even after weighting for demographics and partisanship, the e.g. White non-college historical Republican voters who are actually responding to polls are more likely to be the subset that's switching blue. i.e., whether Americans respond to a poll is now correlated with how they'll respond to a poll in a way that it wasn't 15 years ago.

@anglospherepoliticsguy Thanks! Good explanation! Have an excellent week. 🔥