Will there be another major US intelligence incident in this Trump term? (Post-Atlantic)
41
100Ṁ2436
2029
89%
chance

Particularly as a result of carelessness or willful giving up of state secrets. Incident must be reported/confirmed by multiple major news sources.

"Major" is ill-defined and at my discretion, but things that might count include incidents clearly linked to an intelligence leak than cause a loss of American or allied lives, or an incident with clear, easy-to-understand, negative consequences for American domestic or foreign interests. I'm open to further proposals for how to refine resolution criteria.

The term here is defined as ending on 1/20/29, regardless of whether Trump himself still holds office at that point.

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