Will there be another major US intelligence incident in this Trump term? (Post-Atlantic)
40
100Ṁ2201
2029
85%
chance

Particularly as a result of carelessness or willful giving up of state secrets. Incident must be reported/confirmed by multiple major news sources.

"Major" is ill-defined and at my discretion, but things that might count include incidents clearly linked to an intelligence leak than cause a loss of American or allied lives, or an incident with clear, easy-to-understand, negative consequences for American domestic or foreign interests. I'm open to further proposals for how to refine resolution criteria.

The term here is defined as ending on 1/20/29, regardless of whether Trump himself still holds office at that point.

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I am guessing the intent of the market is AGAIN

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Ha yes, thanks for clarifying - this is posted in response to the Atlantic piece that came out today.

@WalterMartin this market is extremely misleading then

@WalterMartin Does the Atlantic leak fit the resolution criteria?

@Shai this is in response to the Atlantic leak, hence "another". I'll update the title.

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