Will there be another major US intelligence incident in this Trump term? (Post-Atlantic)
41
100Ṁ2335
2029
93%
chance
8

Particularly as a result of carelessness or willful giving up of state secrets. Incident must be reported/confirmed by multiple major news sources.

"Major" is ill-defined and at my discretion, but things that might count include incidents clearly linked to an intelligence leak than cause a loss of American or allied lives, or an incident with clear, easy-to-understand, negative consequences for American domestic or foreign interests. I'm open to further proposals for how to refine resolution criteria.

The term here is defined as ending on 1/20/29, regardless of whether Trump himself still holds office at that point.

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Does signal gate 2.0 count? @walmart

@Dauur has not felt major in the same way, but I'd hear your case for it

@WalterMartin

Based on the criteria provided, a case can be made that "Signalgate 2.0" meets the conditions for a positive resolution. The incident, involving Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sharing sensitive operational details about military strikes in Yemen via the Signal app—reportedly including in chats with unauthorized individuals like family members and accidentally with a journalist—appears to fit the description of "carelessness or willful giving up of state secrets." Furthermore, this series of events received extensive coverage and confirmation from multiple major news sources globally, including The New York Times, The Atlantic, Times of India, and others, satisfying the reporting requirement.

The incident arguably qualifies as "major" due to its clear, negative consequences for US interests. Sharing real-time operational details, even if later disputed as technically "classified," represents a significant breach of operational security. This carelessness compromises the safety of military personnel, potentially undermines the effectiveness of ongoing or future operations against adversaries like the Houthis, reveals sensitive communication practices, and damages the trust of international allies in the US's ability to safeguard sensitive information. Domestically, it erodes public confidence, necessitates investigations, and highlights profound security protocol failures at the highest levels of government. These tangible negative impacts on US foreign and domestic interests align with the discretionary definition of "major," and the events occurred well within the specified timeframe ending January 20, 2029.

I am guessing the intent of the market is AGAIN

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Ha yes, thanks for clarifying - this is posted in response to the Atlantic piece that came out today.

@WalterMartin this market is extremely misleading then

@WalterMartin Does the Atlantic leak fit the resolution criteria?

@Shai this is in response to the Atlantic leak, hence "another". I'll update the title.

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