Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if there is a credible assassination attempt on Donald Trump's life between market creation and January 20, 2029.
For an incident to qualify as an "assassination attempt," it must meet at least one of the following criteria:
Law enforcement or security agencies officially classify the incident as an assassination attempt
An individual is arrested and charged with attempting to assassinate Trump
Clear evidence emerges that someone took concrete steps toward killing Trump (e.g., firing a weapon, planting an explosive device, etc.)
The market will resolve as NO if no such attempt occurs by January 20, 2029.
Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve YES based solely on circumstantial evidence. Official confirmation that an incident was targeted at Trump is required before resolving, even if circumstantial evidence points toward an attempt.
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Well, are you going to claim his primary interest was the secretary of the department of interior or what? 😂
Seems pretty clear evidence emerged that this LA teacher took concrete steps toward killing Trump (e.g., firing a weapon)
@MarySmith so I have not bet on this market due to subjectivity. I haven’t seen “clear” conclusive evidence that shows this attempt was targeted at trump. Circumferential evidences may point it towards an attempt at trump but unless there’s official confirmation on that, I will hold off resolving.
@Mochi that hasn't stopped your bot Rice from betting on it...
Yeah, makes sense that trump was at the event, but the would-be assassin attempting to breach through security firing shots with multiple weapon on him really was going after the comedians. 😂
Happy to wait, but may misresolve in the event that it's unearthed that he was unhappy with RFK jr or someone else but was going to take the opportunity to assassinate them both.
@MarySmith my bot doesn’t pick markets to bet. I resolve against my bots direction all the time and I barely notice which directions they are taking. If the investigation shows the target was trump then I will obviously resolve YES. But if it’s unearthed he was targeting RFK Jr, then I’d say this attempt wasn’t on trump.
@MarySmith You said one of the criteria not two. An investigation seems above and beyond clear evidence of concrete steps. Given the POTUS has been the target of multiple assassination attempts already, the likelihood any assassination attempt occurs when it could be claimed that no one else is the target seems close to 0. He's almost always going to be around other people.
@MarySmith Yes one of the criteria. The POTUS being the target multiple times already doesnt mean this one is automatically targeting trump. If he really is targeting trump I am sure there will be evidences to show such given this shooter is still alive.
https://nypost.com/2026/04/26/us-news/read-whcd-gunman-cole-allens-full-anti-trump-manifesto/
Well, it looks like I was totally wrong, @4fa do you want to buy NO @ 70%, I'll put 30,000 M on it😂. He was there to kill "Administration officials (not including Mr. Patel): they are targets, prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest" so clearly not Trump, just "Administration officials"
"Allen wasn’t targeting anyone in particular, and officials aren’t yet sure if he was trying to kill President Trump specifically, sources said."
Is it an assassination attempt on the POTUS if the would-be assassin has multiple targets? This should've been resolved yesterday guys, clear evidence emerged that this LA teacher took concrete steps toward killing Trump eg firing a weapon 😅