Metaculus likely NAing this

Imagine falling for blompfe blabbing lmao

It's so over

Metaculus admin:

To me it's very clear that it should resolve as No if nothing changes.

I’ve read the discussion on Metaculus and think there’s a quite decent chance this resolves yes. A maersk ship definitely sailed through the Red Sea, and maersk said they’re moving from a “no sail” policy to a stepwise reopening of transit.

To me that meets the Metaculus criteria, the admins may disagree but 5% feels too low.

@Sketchy 5% was def too low. I do think we are still in No territory because a trial balloon isn't a new policy. It would feel like a misreolution if, for example, it resolved Yes but then three months from now the Maersk site still describes the policy from January 2024 as currently effective and does not have regular business. I think the "partial" return of business is meant to cover reduced percent of traffic or only certain contracts passing through, not a trial balloon. But I could be wrong, so I won't bet it down super low.

@Panfilo Yea that's totally fair. To me, the policy shift was the November language around "steps to resume navigation", with the Dec 18 voyage being the first operationalization of that new policy. My read of the resolution criteria is that that's sufficient, but it does depend on your take of how expansive "allowing its ships to travel through the Red Sea" needs to be.

I wouldn't put my "prob of admins agreeing with me" above 50% either, I sold at 40% mostly because that felt about right.

@Sketchy The November language read to me as carefully saying there wasn't a timeline yet, just a reaffirmation of their hope to return when possible, ie. the policy wasn't changed, so to each their own.

@Panfilo @Sketchy yeah I really think there are good arguments to resolution in either direction. One thing to bear in mind is that if the initial news isn't enough for a yes, it's still quite plausible to see additional sailings in the next 9 days, which imo would shift us to definite 'yes' territory.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/maersk-no-timeline-for-red-sea-return Maersk on Wednesday denied published reports that it has set a timeline to resume services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal shipping route.

Maersk: No timeline for Red Sea return

Maersk denied reports that it has set a timeline to resume services through the Red Sea-Suez Canal route.

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