Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?
Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?
23
10kṀ23k2026
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, an application is filed at the German Federal Constitutional Court to ban the Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, by the Federal Government, the Bundestag, or the Bundesrat
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Compare with my market, which includes all of 2026:
https://manifold.markets/LudwigBald/will-somebody-try-to-band-the-afd
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Can Germany freeze AfD funding before August 2025?
2% chance
If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?
35% chance
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?
1% chance
Will Somebody Try to Ban the AfD before 2027?
20% chance
Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?
20% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
15% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
31% chance
Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
85% chance
Germany submits motion to exclude AfD from state funding in 2025
18% chance
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
59% chance