Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
13
10kṀ18832026
45%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, according to credible sources, either a new armed conflict or a substantial escalation of a previous conflict has resulted in at least 5,000 deaths within the calendar year 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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