Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.

Metaculus high-level description:

This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either

• last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026

or

• be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.