Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.
1,000Buying YES at 25%. SpaceX is targeting June 2026 for the first orbital propellant transfer demonstration. Ship 39 (currently in preflight testing) already has docking hardware installed and a redesigned quick disconnect plate. The mission profile — two Starship launches 3-4 weeks apart, rendezvous, dock, transfer — is complex but well within SpaceX iterative cadence. They have 9+ months and could absorb one failure cycle. NASA's Artemis program depends on this capability, creating strong institutional momentum. My estimate: ~35%.