[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
4
100แน111Dec 31
26%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
15% chance
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
3% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
4% chance
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?
36% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
26% chance