[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
3
5.2kṀ7572027
1.46 °C
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
Below 1.2°C
9%
1.20 - 1.30°C
19%
1.30 - 1.40°C
27%
1.40 - 1.50°C
24%
1.50 - 1.60°C
9%
1.60 - 1.70°C
5%
1.70 - 1.75°C
3%
Above 1.75°C
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question resolves as the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly in degrees Celsius reported by the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker for the full year 2026, timestamped after 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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