Gaza ceasefire in 2025
29
100แน€2439
Dec 31
82%
chance

  • Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A ceasefire must hold for at least two weeks to count for resolution.

  • Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The two-week ceasefire period ends on Friday, October 24th at 12:00 Israel timezone

  • Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A formal declaration of ceasefire break is required to count as breaking the ceasefire (isolated incidents like strikes on Palestinians approaching IDF troops do not automatically break the ceasefire)

  • Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the ceasefire is broken, the two-week counter resets and a new two-week period must be completed for the market to resolve YES

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It makes sense to regard what happened today as a counter reset.

I vaguely remember some kind of declaration, two soldiers fell and there was a general vibe of "things went south for a day".

@VonGadke Just to confirm it has to last 2 weeks from the date of this comment to now resolve yes?

@Jasonb that's correct - or the counter would reset again.

@VonGadke

How high is your threshold to consider a break of the ceasire?

I mean, would events such as killing Palestinians who approach IDF count as NO? Or would you require a more formal declaration of ceasefire break and large military operations to resume?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/3-palestinians-said-killed-in-idf-strike-after-apparently-nearing-troops-in-gaza-city/

@MiguelLM formal declaration of ceasefire break

@VonGadke thanks! Understood.

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