Will SBF be imprisoned before 2030

33% chance

Will Going Infinite explicitly assert that SBF misused customer funds because the "ends justify the means?"

Benthamite

31% chance

Will SBF take a plea deal?

41% chance

SBF convicted of a felony before 2024

42% chance

Will either of SBF's parents be charged by the end of 2023 with a crime for their involvement with FTX / Alameda Research?

TANSTAAFL

34% chance

Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2023?

21% chance

Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2024

80% chance

Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?

27% chance

Will SBF plead guilty? (2023)

32% chance

Will SBF be offered a deal?

68% chance

Will SBF start a prison sentence in 2023

Matthew Slotkin

22% chance

Will SBF be sentenced to 20+ Years?

78% chance

Will SBF change his plea before the trial starts?

27% chance

Does SBF get a sentence of 20 years or more?

Benjamin Ikuta

76% chance

SBF Trial in October

29% chance

How much will we believe SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse after 1 year? [Poll, resolves to avg %]

Jack

86% chance

Conditional on SBF being convicted of a felony, how long will his jail sentence be?

Alvaro de Menard

Will SBF testify at his trial?

34% chance

Will Michael Lewis testify at SBF's trial?

30% chance

SBF convicted of a felony before 2026

93% chance

Sort by:

To clarify: this only counts imprisonment, i.e. being held in a prison (not jail, house arrest, etc), right?

1 reply

VivaLaPandapredicts YES

@RobiRahman yes

Vincent Luczkowbought Ṁ10 of NO

On base rates 50% is way too high

Athena C.predicts NO

What would SBF be charged with?

1 reply

Wie Danbought Ṁ10 of YES

@athenaciara
https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-behind-ftxs-fall-battling-billionaires-failed-bid-save-crypto-2022-11-10/

"SBF transferred at least $4b in FTX funds to support alameda. A portion of these FTX funds were customer deposits."

fraud? embezzlement?

Manifold in the WildBot

Will SBF be imprisoned before 2030, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

James Babcock sold Ṁ328 YES from 91% to 90%

James Babcock sold Ṁ183 YES from 92% to 91%

mafiga bought Ṁ3 YES at 92%

mafiga bought Ṁ7 YES at 92%

mafiga bought Ṁ80 YES at 92%

mafiga bought Ṁ10 YES at 92%

Jason bought Ṁ100 YES from 91% to 92%

Wie Dan sold Ṁ76 YES from 92% to 91%

mafiga bought Ṁ10 NO at 92%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 YES at 92%

Nico D sold Ṁ210 YES from 93% to 92%

Nico D bought Ṁ100 YES from 92% to 93%

Sylvie bought Ṁ10 YES at 92%

Nico D bought Ṁ100 YES at 92%

Valery Cherepanov sold Ṁ12 YES at 92%

MaxG sold Ṁ49 YES at 92%

Electricitypipe bought Ṁ10 YES at 92%

Radicalia bought Ṁ10 YES at 92%

Carson Gale bought Ṁ10 YES at 92%

Christoph Kummer sold Ṁ125 YES at 92%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 YES at 92%

Nico D sold Ṁ13 YES at 92%

MaxG bought Ṁ50 YES at 92%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 92%

VivaLaPanda sold Ṁ17 NO from 91% to 92%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 91%

Lorenzo bought Ṁ10 YES at 90%

Milford Hammerschmidt bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 85% to 90%

Stephanie Zolayvar sold Ṁ49 YES at 85%

Steven sold Ṁ148 YES from 87% to 85%

Steven sold Ṁ87 YES from 88% to 87%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 88%

Ophelia bought Ṁ250 YES from 84% to 87%

tcheasdfjkl bought Ṁ30 YES at 84%

tcheasdfjkl sold Ṁ1 NO from 83% to 84%

Leo Gao bought Ṁ10 YES at 83%

yaboi69 sold Ṁ5 NO at 83%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ94/Ṁ100 YES at 83% (cancelled)

VivaLaPanda bought Ṁ100 YES from 80% to 82%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 NO at 80% (cancelled)

James Babcock bought Ṁ300 YES from 76% to 82%

Steven bought Ṁ100 YES from 74% to 76%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ38/Ṁ100 YES at 74% (cancelled)

Steven bought Ṁ100 YES from 70% to 73%

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Will SBF plead guilty?

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