Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?

Science•Climate•Natural Disasters•Futurism•Existential Risk

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2090

17%

chance

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If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES. Otherwise NO after close.

10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:

outright deaths
decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe
reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average
etc.

Our baseline for decrease in population not due to extraordinary deaths will be framed around the 2022 UN Projections (currently located here). This is not the defining point of truth if solid analysis and data comes to light, especially considering that the UN already takes some climate trends into account, but it's a great indicator of unexpected change, such as if life expectancy, fertility, or replacement rates drop precipitously in later versions of their projections. See also the OWID data linked in this comment on the 2050 market.

Some 2050 numbers from the 2022 projections (the data is less clear for after 2050):

9.7 billion humans
16.4% aged 65+
Fertility (births per woman): 2.1
Life expectancy: 77.2; 74.8 (M), 79.8 (F)

Since there aren't as solid projections this far out, the data referenced is subject to change.

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2050: /Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans

2070: /Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-9f63de4b27a2

2090 (this): /Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-a6501c666cd9

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicts NO

https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/base-rates-of-catastrophes/

So the payout is after most of us are dead? 🤣

@MikeLewis You don't have your Manifold assets in your will?

@MaxMorehead Doing it now. And because you made me laugh, you get 50%! Lucky guy.

predicts NO

These are very interesting but also very difficult markets. Since climate change will basically be a background condition for much of the century, it’s incredibly hard to specify the relevant counterfactuals when comparing actual curves with projections. It’s not clear that any meaningful projections are now being made that don’t account for the various effects of climate change, so any 10% decrease due to climate change would fail to show up in the data. At the same time, even independent of climate change, projections this far out are extremely speculative, but also small deviations in the near term could be have vastly amplified effects down the line. My confidence one way or another beyond 2050 is very low.

predicts YES

@NicoDelon all very good points! I'm expecting a YES resolution here will have to be based on rigorous analysis seeking an answer to exactly "how much has climate change impacted humans?" but I also expect that study will be done, multiple times, over the century

predicts NO

@Stralor And I’m not denying such an analysis is possible. It’s a fascinating question.