Will forces from a NATO member country enter Belarus before Q4 2023?
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510
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

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This is my first market to close. I wanted to create a low probability market to see how that would response to news/tension spikes. Turns out it was quite stable!

In later markets I have become more specific about how to resolve, but I think the gist of this prediction was easy to parse.

I am myself quite surprised how much border tensions have escalated, although I myself also wouldn't have updated on this rather extreme prediction, as opposed to e.g. unannounced military exercises in the region.

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