Note "(unlike Llama 2 license)" means there aren't restrictions in who can use the model. See "On Question Definitions and New Questions" section below.

Spirit of this market is seeing if any "big tech" company will release their LLM foundation model in a similar way that Meta ultimately released their Llama 2 model. This market will focus on "big tech" but that definition is pretty fuzzy. At creation of this market, I'm starting with the most discussed companies developing an LLM that is comparable to something like GPT-3 or GPT-4, specifically OpenAI (GPT-n), Google (Gemini), Meta, Apple, and ByteDance. More than one question can be resolved.

Note that I won't be voting on any of the questions to remain relatively impartial to any question resolutions.

Note on "Open Source" Definition

Something to note is that I use "open source" in quotes because there's a fair argument that although Llama 2 is often referred to as "open source" it shouldn't be such as limiting it's license so companies with more than 700 million monthly users have to ask for special permission (see articles like this from IEEE Spectrum).

On Question Definitions and New Questions

I'll try my best to keep questions reasonably defined to include at least a couple degrees of "open source". There are plenty of potential edge cases but to keep this market getting too complicated, I'll interpret "open source" in two ways:

• weights & training code available with some restrictions (similar to the current Llama 2 license)

• weights & training code available without restriction to who can use it (unlike the current Llama 2 license)

The idea would be that the "open source" model has available weights and is able to be trained/fine-tuned. If a model falls short of those conditions, I won't define it as "open source" but open to redefining if it makes sense for this market.

I'm open to adding more questions (companies or categories) but I'll be pretty conservative on adding new questions. I'll also keep it to established "big tech" but who knows what can change over the year.

If there ends up being a significant vagueness that makes it difficult to resolve a question as "YES" or "NO", I'll default to "N/A" but will try to resolve as close to the spirit of the market at creation.