Resolves to YES if the Ariane 6 rocket successfully completes an orbital mission before July 1st 2024.
Mission success is defined by Arianespace, Ariane Group or ESA criteria, and a non zero amount of mass must reach stable earth orbit.
The exact deadline is measured as the rocket launch time (T-0) at the launch site local time zone.
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Now officially "between June 15th and July 31st"
https://air-cosmos.com/article/un-pas-de-plus-vers-le-vol-inaugural-d-ariane-6-68367
Now no earlier than June 15th
As far as I can tell the official plan is for the maiden flight to be “early 2024” with no exact date yet. This has been delayed before, so plausibly it could be delayed again. And apparently for rockets “Typically, first or second launch, you expect something like 30% of them to fail”.