Will the unemployment rate among CS degree-holders rise to over 30% by 2030?
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2029
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Resolves YES if a credible source reports the unemployment rate of computer science degree-holders to be over 30% in 2030; resolves NO otherwise.

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What is the baseline unemployment rate of computer science degree holders?

predicts NO

This would only happen if AGI completely remakes our world, makes comparative advantage irrelevant and literally everything is automated and humans don't work anymore. And even then, we would probably not see it as unemployment anymore, people would just drop out of the labor force.

If it's just a scenario where AI automates coding jobs, most CS majors would just work in some other field - be it consulting or garbage disposal.

predicts YES

@LukasTilmann ironically they kill their own job

@MarkIngraham so who tasks and maintains the AIs? Or expands their capabilities to new markets? Is there a better fit engineering position than a cs major?

To me it seems like it would be an endless 10 percent problem: someone is employed for decades expanding AI to the "last 10 percent" for most jobs, with some being easier than others to fully automate.

Leaving "AI touchers" (whatever their background), legally protected jobs (doctors, lawyers, government officials etc though they will just "review" what an AI wants to do with an hmi that let's them send along the AI plan unaltered), and everyone else.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

A world where unemployment is a thing can't really survive if a huge section of the population has 30% unemployment. This could happen if AI destroys most forms of work but just e.g. automating computer programming wouldn't be enough if CS majors could still find jobs in other normal people stuff.

predicts NO

@ShakedKoplewitz also this is asking about unemployment, not labor force participation - it needs a world with AI strong enough to destroy most jobs but not so strong as to remove the need for most people to work.

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