By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?
Dec 30

As of late, there is talk of an "AI war" brewing amongst the tech giants (mainly Google and Microsoft):

Currently, the consensus is that Microsoft (and OpenAI) have made the first move and are in a winning position against Google:

However, some are of the opinion that Google will eventually gain back lost ground and defeat Microsoft:

The market will resolve YES if by the end of 2024, Google appears to have an edge over Microsoft in the "AI war"; the market will resolve NO otherwise.

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Gemini(Google product)is better than copilot (Microsoft product) from my personal user experience so I bet Google

The resolution criteria here is fuzzy. If both offer compelling AI-based products, how are you going to determine the “winner”?

bought Ṁ115 of NO

@JamesRomeril this market will inherently have a subjective element to it since i will be personally judging, but i will promise to largely abide by consensus opinion and am willing to discuss if there are disagreements. an example of something that will be used as a metric to decide this would be things like the relative performance of their state of the art models, etc.

bought Ṁ55 of YES

Bing is the worst website on the internet. I mean the search results. They are entirely useless. It’s hard to believe they could screw up search so badly.

bought Ṁ2,999 of NO

Google hasn’t shipped a product since Gmail

GitHub Copilot is better than anything they’ve done over the last decade

Even this website has better search/recommendation than YouTube which is arguably the worst managed platform in the world

predicts YES

@Gigacasting Microsoft's incompetence is also very well documented

predicts YES

@Gigacasting AI isn't a product, it's a feature. And Google has consistently shipped features.

Also, consider Anthropic. A win for them is essentially a Google win.

If everyone dies (and so there is no winner), would you please resolve this as N/A? Thx

predicts NO

@YonatanCale will try my best bro

@VictorLJZ I feel like this should be a NO resolution. Along with other catastrophes where it becomes clear that the only winning move was not to play.

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