Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly makes a new, distinct policy promise between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, that is deemed "absurd" by a majority of voters in a community poll.
To resolve the market:
The promise must be new and announced after the market's creation (thus excluding previous proposals like the $5,000 "Trump dividend").
If Trump makes a new prominent promise that is widely characterized by media, analysts, or the public as highly unrealistic or absurd, a poll will be conducted among Manifold users to determine if it meets the "absurd" threshold.
If a simple majority of voters in the poll agree that the promise is absurd, this market resolves to YES.
If no new promises meeting this description are made by December 31, 2026, or if any new promises are voted "No" in the poll, the market will resolve to NO.
Background
In September 2026, Donald Trump made headlines by promising a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to every adult U.S. citizen if the Republican Party maintains control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Critics, economists, and media outlets widely characterized the promise as "absurd," "budget-busting," and mathematically unfeasible, given its estimated cost of over $1 trillion.
This follows a history of highly ambitious or unconventional financial proposals, such as his previous suggestions of a "DOGE dividend" and a $2,000 tariff-funded dividend. This market tracks whether he will introduce another similarly unrealistic policy or payout promise before the end of 2026.
1,000