Manifold user's average p(doom) | Manifold

Manifold user's average p(doom)

1

Ṁ1kṀ224

resolved Oct 6

Resolved

N/A

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to the average p(doom).

I'll run a poll for about 2 weeks after close date, probably with buckets in increments of 10% but it's up for debate.

This market will resolve to 50% if the poll doesn't get at least 20 voters.

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Related questions

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

What's the p(doom) of monkeys?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

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Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

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Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?