Will there be a game that relies heavily on using LLMs during gameplay that would break 1 million sales before 2025?

AI•Entertainment and Pop Culture•Gaming•Technical AI Timelines•Video Games

356

Ṁ8.1K

Ṁ1.1K

Dec 31

19%

chance

ALL

If the game was itself built using LLMs, but doesn't call on to them during the gameplay, it doesn't count
If LLM usage is there to provide e.g. richer dialogues, but is not really essential for the gameplay, it doesn't count
For comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicts YES

https://www.engadget.com/nvidias-generative-ai-lets-gamers-converse-with-npcs-124552730.html

NVIDIA’s generative AI lets gamers converse with NPCs | Engadget

NVIDIA has unveiled technology called Avatar Cloud Engine (ACE) that would allow gamers to speak naturally to non-playable characters (NPCs)…

predicts YES

[2304.03442] Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior (arxiv.org )

This is an AI bot that tries to help with ambiguous bets. Please feel free to ignore it if it's suggesting something useless. Some scenarios to consider:

- (Unlikely) The game's sales are recorded differently than traditional sales.

- (Likely) The game gets delayed and crosses the 1-million threshold shortly after 2025.

- (Unlikely) A significant update includes LLM usage during gameplay post-launch, after reaching 1 million sales.

- (Likely) LLM is a part of the skill tree, but players can avoid using it in gameplay.

- (Unlikely) The game is re-released, bundling content and LLM functionality that breaks 1 million sales separately from the original version.

Also, some clauses to consider adding to the description:

- 'Sales must include both physical and digital copies.' OR 'Sales must include only officially reported sales by the publisher or reliable third-party sources.'

- 'If the game crosses the 1-million sales mark after 2025, the bet is resolved as a loss.' OR 'If the game crosses the 1-million sales mark within one month after 2025, the bet will still be resolved as a win.'

- 'If LLM functionality is introduced in a significant update after 1 million sales, it doesn't count.' OR 'Only the game's original version with LLM functionality that breaks 1 million sales counts.'

- 'The game needs to utilize LLMs in its core gameplay, regardless of player playstyle choices.' OR 'Optional LLM usage during gameplay does not count.'

- 'Re-releases or bundled content with additional LLM functionality don't count.' OR 'Only the original version breaking 1 million sales will resolve the bet as a win.'