This concerns the Fall 2026 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2025 for Early Decision, and January/February 2026 for Regular Decision.
Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2026, at least one of those things happens:
one of the Ivy League colleges omits the student essay from their Bachelor-level admissions process
one of the Ivy League colleges adds additional technological requirements for the Student Essay that are designed to prevent, detect, hinder the use of LLMs, or
three of the Ivy League colleges officially declare that, while the essay still a part of the admissions, it's considered much less important than before
It's still a NO, if Ivy League colleges officially declare that they look for something else in the essay (like, more personal experiences?), but the weight of the essay doesn't seem to change.
see https://manifold.markets/ValentinGolev/will-technology-related-to-chatgpt
1,000
3.00This prediction hinges on significant changes to the Ivy League's admissions process for Fall 2026, specifically regarding the student essay. If any Ivy League school drops the essay, introduces tech to counter AI use in essays, or de-emphasizes the essay's importance, the prediction resolves as YES. However, if the essay's focus shifts without reducing its weight, it's still a NO. This scenario reflects growing concerns about the role of AI in admissions and how elite institutions might respond.
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