This concerns the Fall 2024 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2023 for Early Decision, and January/February 2024 for Regular Decision.
Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2024, at least one of those things happens:
one of the Ivy League colleges omits the student essay from their Bachelor-level admissions process
one of the Ivy League colleges adds additional technological requirements for the Student Essay that are designed to prevent, detect, hinder the use of LLMs, or
three of the Ivy League colleges officially declare that, while the essay still a part of the admissions, it's considered much less important than before
It's still a NO, if Ivy League colleges officially declare that they look for something else in the essay (like, more personal experiences?), but the weight of the essay doesn't seem to change.
(I'm not sure this is the best kind of criteria, please let me know!)
See also: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/chatgpt-ai-writing-college-student-essays/672371/ ( https://archive.is/DQME4 )
I think the word “detect” in the criteria greatly increases this probability. Professors have already been announcing they’re using detection tools, so it’s just a matter of time before admissions adds a warning or makes a statement or something about using GPT.
@wustep I am not sure they will be official, because the detectors are horrible and discriminatory (see e.g. https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.02819 ). I suspect using detector
is the route most susceptible to litigation
@ValentinGolev hmmm that's fair! maybe they'll run forms of detection but simply not announce anything or not say it will be penalizing.
Can you elaborate on “technological requirements”? eg if there’s no change to what the applicant does, but colleges start using a GPT detector and use that to affect their decisions, does that count?
@wustep yes, if it's officially announced as possible grounds to reject the application. (the "detect" word is there in the description!). IMO that would be the worst possible decision hahah
@ValentinGolev Fwiw colleges already use plagiarism checkers for admissions, and “AI text detection” being part of this existing pipelines is not “significantly altering the role of essays” IMO
@pranav i disagree because the plagiarism detector gives you a proof, and gpt detector can't give you anything remotely proof-like. so a purely detector-driven crackdown is a major and harmful step
@ValentinGolev basically all plagiarism detection companies have added/are adding AI text detection as a feature (see turnitin). Don’t think colleges (especially Ivy leagues) would announce they are using think but don’t think it’s a major change
@pranav well if they won't announce anything then it's a NO :)
This is an AI bot that tries to help with ambiguous bets. Please feel free to ignore it if it's suggesting something useless. Some scenarios to consider:
- (Unlikely) All Ivy League colleges change their essay requirements, but only two officially declare it less important.
- (Likely) Non-Ivy League colleges adopt measures against the use of AI-generated essays, while Ivy League colleges don't change their admissions process.
- (Unlikely) An Ivy League college adds a technological requirement that indirectly prevents, detects, or hinders the use of LLMs, without explicitly mentioning it.
- (Unlikely) One of the Ivy League colleges removes the student essay but doesn't officially declare a reason related to AI-generated essays.
Also, some clauses to consider adding to the description:
- 'Requires an official declaration from the college, connecting the change in importance of the student essay directly to AI-generated essays.' OR 'Does not require an official declaration from the college mentioning AI-generated essays, as long as the importance of the essay is clearly diminished.'
- 'Expands the bet to also include a specific number of non-Ivy League colleges adopting AI-prevention measures.' OR 'Keeps the bet focused exclusively on Ivy League colleges.'
- 'Includes changes that indirectly address the use of AI-generated essays without explicitly mentioning them.' OR 'Excludes changes that do not expressly mention preventing, detecting, or hindering the use of AI-generated essays.'
- 'Removal of the student essay should be connected to AI-generated essays for it to count as a YES resolution.' OR 'Removal of the student essay counts as a YES resolution, even if there's no official declaration tying it to AI-generated essays.'
This seems to be very mispriced:
p(omission of student essays for undergrad admissions in an Ivy League by 2024) is basically 0%
Ivy League colleges are very unlikely to drastically change policies especially for the next admissions season – maybe in 3-5 years but I'd be very skeptical they'd change it now
Standard for an extremely good college essay at a top school is very very high, and ChatGPT doesn't come close to meeting that standard
Essays are primarily about a student's experiences already and ChatGPT won't really help unless significant effort is put into prompting (v v small % of students would do this)
@pranav I tend to agree, try this one https://manifold.markets/ValentinGolev/will-technology-related-to-chatgpt-629d8227713c
Essays once held great sway,
But now tech may have its way,
ChatGPT's AI might just sway,
To make essays a thing of yesterday.
Raise the word limit to 1billion so people must spend at least $2000 on essays
@Gigacasting would be a YES
the Bachelor-level admissions for 2024
To clarify, this would be students applying in October-December 2023, correct?
@Gabrielle updated to state: "This concerns the Fall 2024 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2023 for Early Decision, and January/February 2024 for Regular Decision.". Might make sense to create the same market but for a year later; if this starts to lean heavily into "NO" I'll do that