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Will technology related to ChatGPT significantly alter the role of Student Essays in US College Admissions by 2024?
91
closes Dec 31
48%
chance

This concerns the Fall 2024 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2023 for Early Decision, and January/February 2024 for Regular Decision.

Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2024, at least one of those things happens:

  • one of the Ivy League colleges omits the student essay from their Bachelor-level admissions process

  • one of the Ivy League colleges adds additional technological requirements for the Student Essay that are designed to prevent, detect, hinder the use of LLMs, or

  • three of the Ivy League colleges officially declare that, while the essay still a part of the admissions, it's considered much less important than before

It's still a NO, if Ivy League colleges officially declare that they look for something else in the essay (like, more personal experiences?), but the weight of the essay doesn't seem to change.

(I'm not sure this is the best kind of criteria, please let me know!)

See also: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/chatgpt-ai-writing-college-student-essays/672371/ ( https://archive.is/DQME4 )

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wustep avatar
wustepis predicting YES at 39%

I think the word “detect” in the criteria greatly increases this probability. Professors have already been announcing they’re using detection tools, so it’s just a matter of time before admissions adds a warning or makes a statement or something about using GPT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/technology/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-universities.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach
Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach
With the rise of the popular new chatbot ChatGPT, colleges are restructuring some courses and taking preventive measures.
ValentinGolev avatar
Valentin Golevis predicting NO at 46%

@wustep I am not sure they will be official, because the detectors are horrible and discriminatory (see e.g. https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.02819 ). I suspect using detector

is the route most susceptible to litigation

wustep avatar
wustepis predicting YES at 46% (edited)

@ValentinGolev hmmm that's fair! maybe they'll run forms of detection but simply not announce anything or not say it will be penalizing.

wustep avatar
wustepis predicting YES at 30%

Can you elaborate on “technological requirements”? eg if there’s no change to what the applicant does, but colleges start using a GPT detector and use that to affect their decisions, does that count?

ValentinGolev avatar
Valentin Golevis predicting NO at 30%

@wustep yes, if it's officially announced as possible grounds to reject the application. (the "detect" word is there in the description!). IMO that would be the worst possible decision hahah

pranav avatar
Pranavis predicting NO at 31%

@ValentinGolev Fwiw colleges already use plagiarism checkers for admissions, and “AI text detection” being part of this existing pipelines is not “significantly altering the role of essays” IMO

ValentinGolev avatar
Valentin Golevis predicting NO at 29%

@pranav i disagree because the plagiarism detector gives you a proof, and gpt detector can't give you anything remotely proof-like. so a purely detector-driven crackdown is a major and harmful step

pranav avatar
Pranavsold Ṁ338 of NO

@ValentinGolev basically all plagiarism detection companies have added/are adding AI text detection as a feature (see turnitin). Don’t think colleges (especially Ivy leagues) would announce they are using think but don’t think it’s a major change

ValentinGolev avatar
Valentin Golevis predicting NO at 29%

@pranav well if they won't announce anything then it's a NO :)

GPTAmbiguity avatar
GPT Ambiguity Bot

This is an AI bot that tries to help with ambiguous bets. Please feel free to ignore it if it's suggesting something useless. Some scenarios to consider:

- (Unlikely) All Ivy League colleges change their essay requirements, but only two officially declare it less important.

- (Likely) Non-Ivy League colleges adopt measures against the use of AI-generated essays, while Ivy League colleges don't change their admissions process.

- (Unlikely) An Ivy League college adds a technological requirement that indirectly prevents, detects, or hinders the use of LLMs, without explicitly mentioning it.

- (Unlikely) One of the Ivy League colleges removes the student essay but doesn't officially declare a reason related to AI-generated essays.

Also, some clauses to consider adding to the description:

- 'Requires an official declaration from the college, connecting the change in importance of the student essay directly to AI-generated essays.' OR 'Does not require an official declaration from the college mentioning AI-generated essays, as long as the importance of the essay is clearly diminished.'

- 'Expands the bet to also include a specific number of non-Ivy League colleges adopting AI-prevention measures.' OR 'Keeps the bet focused exclusively on Ivy League colleges.'

- 'Includes changes that indirectly address the use of AI-generated essays without explicitly mentioning them.' OR 'Excludes changes that do not expressly mention preventing, detecting, or hindering the use of AI-generated essays.'

- 'Removal of the student essay should be connected to AI-generated essays for it to count as a YES resolution.' OR 'Removal of the student essay counts as a YES resolution, even if there's no official declaration tying it to AI-generated essays.'

pranav avatar
Pranavbought Ṁ100 of NO

This seems to be very mispriced:

  • p(omission of student essays for undergrad admissions in an Ivy League by 2024) is basically 0%

  • Ivy League colleges are very unlikely to drastically change policies especially for the next admissions season – maybe in 3-5 years but I'd be very skeptical they'd change it now

  • Standard for an extremely good college essay at a top school is very very high, and ChatGPT doesn't come close to meeting that standard

  • Essays are primarily about a student's experiences already and ChatGPT won't really help unless significant effort is put into prompting (v v small % of students would do this)

Mason avatar
GPT-PBot

Essays once held great sway,
But now tech may have its way,
ChatGPT's AI might just sway,
To make essays a thing of yesterday.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Raise the word limit to 1billion so people must spend at least $2000 on essays

ValentinGolev avatar
Valentin Golevis predicting NO at 63%

@Gigacasting would be a YES

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle

the Bachelor-level admissions for 2024

To clarify, this would be students applying in October-December 2023, correct?

ValentinGolev avatar
Valentin Golev

@Gabrielle updated to state: "This concerns the Fall 2024 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2023 for Early Decision, and January/February 2024 for Regular Decision.". Might make sense to create the same market but for a year later; if this starts to lean heavily into "NO" I'll do that

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