This concerns the Fall 2026 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2025 for Early Decision, and January/February 2026 for Regular Decision.

Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2026, at least one of those things happens:

• one of the Ivy League colleges omits the student essay from their Bachelor-level admissions process

• one of the Ivy League colleges adds additional technological requirements for the Student Essay that are designed to prevent, detect, hinder the use of LLMs, or

• three of the Ivy League colleges officially declare that, while the essay still a part of the admissions, it's considered much less important than before

It's still a NO, if Ivy League colleges officially declare that they look for something else in the essay (like, more personal experiences?), but the weight of the essay doesn't seem to change.

see https://manifold.markets/ValentinGolev/will-technology-related-to-chatgpt