Will Meta's twitter alternative have a couple of "popular" users before end of 2024?
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resolved Jul 8
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YES

I was thinking how to estimate whether it'd be popular, because I'm not sure they'd publish any metrics.

So my idea is: this is a YES, if at one point of time before end of 2024 there's a couple of users on that website such that:

  • they have >= 200'000 followers

  • there have four recent posts that are both: made in the previous 7 days, and have >= 5'000 likes

If you have better ideas, let me know in the comments, maybe we'll come up with a better market

See also https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-metas-twitter-alternative-be-l

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all her post have more than 5k like except one and she has more than 200k likes

predicted NO

@Kabose is there another one? i won’t be able to sign up and check today

@ValentinGolev pokimane with 390k followers and all her threads have more than 5k likes https://www.threads.net/@pokimanelol?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

predicted YES

Do they need to have those 200k subs on their previous platform or on the new one?

predicted NO

@KongoLandwalker only need them on the new

bought Ṁ80 of YES
predicted NO

@alby 31% chance?..

predicted YES

@ValentinGolev I'm not setting the chance 🤭