I was thinking how to estimate whether it'd be popular, because I'm not sure they'd publish any metrics.

So my idea is: this is a YES, if at one point of time before end of 2024 there's a couple of users on that website such that:

• they have >= 200'000 followers

• there have four recent posts that are both: made in the previous 7 days, and have >= 5'000 likes

If you have better ideas, let me know in the comments, maybe we'll come up with a better market

See also https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-metas-twitter-alternative-be-l