Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, NATO officially accuses Iran of attacking a NATO member state. An official accusation is defined as a formal statement or declaration issued by NATO, such as a press release or official communiqué, explicitly stating that Iran has attacked a NATO member. The resolution will be based on official NATO communications available on their website: NATO Official Statements. If no such official accusation is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

NATO's founding treaty includes Article 5, which states that an armed attack against one or more NATO members is considered an attack against all members, prompting collective defense measures. This principle has been invoked only once, following the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. NATO Collective Defense - Article 5

In recent years, NATO has expressed concerns over Iran's alleged military support to Russia, particularly regarding the transfer of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) used in the conflict in Ukraine. Iran has consistently denied these allegations, maintaining a stance of neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict. Iran Rejects NATO Allegations

Considerations

While NATO has previously accused Iran of supplying military equipment to Russia, these accusations have not escalated to formal allegations of direct attacks on NATO member states. Traders should monitor official NATO communications and international developments for any changes in this dynamic.