(2024 US Presidential Election) Will Trump or Harris have <25% chance of winning? Will they win anyway?
➕
Plus
12
Ṁ2086
Nov 5
5%
Trump odds drop below 25%, Trump wins
2%
Harris odds drop below 25%, Harris wins
79%
Both Trump and Harris odds stay above 25%
5%
Harris odds drop below 25%, Trump stays above 25% and wins
8%
Trump odds drop below 25%, Harris stays above 25% and wins
2%
Other

Background: In the 2016 US Presidential election, prediction markets strongly predicted a Clinton victory, giving 80%+ odds on that outcome, and the result turned out otherwise.

In the 2024 US Presidential election, will this market on Polymarket show a less than 25% chance of victory for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump, at any point prior to November 4 (EST)? And if so, who will actually win the election?

(In the event of a shutdown of the market or Polymarket as a whole, I will try to pick another prediction market as a replacement.)

I will not bet on this market.

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Trump
#Kamala Harris
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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ20 Both Trump and Harri... YES

i think topline election odds will stay pretty conservative, predictors still seem pretty burned by 2016

betting markets didn't break 70% for biden in 2020 and that looked pretty confident

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