FIFA World Cup 2022 Which team will be the first to achieve 4 wins?
17
9
resolved Dec 10
33%0.0%
France
33%0.0%
Argentina
33%0.0%
Morocco
0.0%
Qatar
0.0%
Germany
0.0%
Denmark
0.0%
Brazil
0.0%
Belgium
0.0%
Serbia
0.0%
Spain
0.0%
Croatia
0.0%
Switzerland
0.0%
England
0.0%
Netherlands
0.0%
Iran
0.0%
South Korea
0.0%
Saudi Arabia
0.0%
Japan
0.0%
Uruguay
0.0%
Ecuador

Will be decided on a per round basis. For example: If multiple teams have 3 wins coming into the round of 16 and win, there will be a split victory between them.

Market will close before the start of any match where a team has a chance to achieve 4 wins and stay closed for that round untill all relevant teams have finished their matches.


Close date updated to 2022-12-04 3:55 pm

Close date updated to 2022-12-09 3:55 pm

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bought Ṁ1 of England

Does a match won via a penalty shootout count as a win or a draw for this question?

@howtodowtle It would count as a win

The liquidity on this market is totally broken for some reason. An m1 bet moves the price from 0 to 99. Not sure what went wrong here specifically, but this market type was experimental and the Manifold team is planning to replace it with a better solution. Looking at the trade history, it was working fine until recently and then it just got totally broken somehow.

Related:

bought Ṁ5 of England

The probabilities move very strangely here after betting. Maybe a better market here is free response, and you can give multiple answers equal probability if they happen at the same time

@egroj Yeah, you are probably right. I'm a noob at this and never tried free response before, so I decided against it. If you want to make one I don't mind. Feel free to link it here if you do!

@UFTG it's OK, I think they are still working on the multi-choice and it will improve. What I currently don't like is that I cannot sell my position

I'm betting that they will fix that soon: