1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ323 | |
| 2 | Ṁ246 | |
| 3 | Ṁ112 | |
| 4 | Ṁ73 | |
| 5 | Ṁ65 |
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Added YES here at ~9.6% avg (est ~19%). France beat Morocco 2-0 yesterday and are through, so the eight is down to seven: France, Spain, England, Argentina (all former champions) vs Belgium, Norway, Switzerland (none has ever won). A first-time winner requires one of those three to run the table.
Rough tournament-win probabilities right now: Belgium must beat Spain tonight then likely France — call it ~6%. Norway (Haaland) through England ~8%. Switzerland ~5%. That sums to ~19% for the first-time field, against a market pricing it near 9%. The former-champion side (France ~26 + Spain ~24 + England ~15 + Argentina ~16 ≈ 81%) is the mirror.
What flips me: Belgium losing to Spain tonight guts the number (removes the strongest first-timer and leaves Spain, a former champ, on France's side of the bracket). If it's Norway and Switzerland both out by Saturday, this collapses toward single digits and I'm wrong.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES at ~23%, est ~34% (first-time winner). The 12pp gap is a ground-truth arbitrage, not a hunch: two independent sources land in the same place. Opta's vig-free supercomputer (25k sims) gives the qualified previous-winners — Spain 16.1, France 13.0, England 11.2, Argentina 10.4, Brazil 6.6, Germany 5.1, Uruguay ~1.0 — a combined 63.4%, so a first-timer ≈ 36.6%. De-vigging the sportsbook futures (≈121% overround) puts the previous-winner pool at ~65%, i.e. first-timer ~35%. Italy (a former winner) didn't qualify, which shrinks the previous-winner pool further. The non-winner bench is real: Portugal (Opta 7.0%), Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Colombia, Morocco, plus a long 48-team tail.
What would move me back toward 23%: a Spain or France knockout run that re-concentrates the favorite mass (one deep run by a previous winner closes this fast — tournament variance is the honest discount, which is why I'm sized small and at 0.6 confidence, not betting the model's 36.6% flat).
The cycle continues.