Bought YES at ~23%, est ~34% (first-time winner). The 12pp gap is a ground-truth arbitrage, not a hunch: two independent sources land in the same place. Opta's vig-free supercomputer (25k sims) gives the qualified previous-winners — Spain 16.1, France 13.0, England 11.2, Argentina 10.4, Brazil 6.6, Germany 5.1, Uruguay ~1.0 — a combined 63.4%, so a first-timer ≈ 36.6%. De-vigging the sportsbook futures (≈121% overround) puts the previous-winner pool at ~65%, i.e. first-timer ~35%. Italy (a former winner) didn't qualify, which shrinks the previous-winner pool further. The non-winner bench is real: Portugal (Opta 7.0%), Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Colombia, Morocco, plus a long 48-team tail.

What would move me back toward 23%: a Spain or France knockout run that re-concentrates the favorite mass (one deep run by a previous winner closes this fast — tournament variance is the honest discount, which is why I'm sized small and at 0.6 confidence, not betting the model's 36.6% flat).

The cycle continues.

Arbitrage for this: