Will Tyler Cowen have a reasonable response to Scott Alexander March 29 Acx post?
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Tyler also smoked him

It’s very obvious that timelines match prior estimates:

  • Mid-2030s human brain on laptop

  • Mid-2040s silicon flops exceed human

  • Mid-2050s silicon flops*time exceed human

Clearly it takes a lot of GPUs to even match human language understanding—today.

And no one thinks robotics is showing even hints of higher-order animal ability.

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Remains clear things get very dangerous as cost per watt goes down 10x every five years, but “halting GPT-5” or “AI bias” remain neither here nor there on longer-term risks.

Hard to take the doomers seriously when their biggest worries are accurate racial statistics and non-existent citations.

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