Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ46
Dec 31
67%
chance

The post has to be specifically about the cluster of people who are mostly researching LLM preferences/behaviors in an unconventional way (advocating for the preservation of access to older models, evaluating their well-being, running act i-like discords and similar)
Examples of people in this cluster: janus, anthrupad, aitechnopagan, tessera_antra

Market context
ACX
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
61% chance
Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?
71% chance
Will Scott Alexander do anything before 2030 that I personally would consider highly unethical?
5% chance
Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?
56% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?
38% chance
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
2% chance
📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
79% chance