Once weakly general AI has been developed, as defined by this question, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/ (year x), will US total factor productivity (TFP) growth double within ten years?

I'll be using Fred's Total Factor Productivity at Constant National Prices for United States time series. Unfortunately, this data has very high variance, making a year x and year x + 10 comparison somewhat meaningless.

I will resolve this yes if the ten year average on year x + 10 is double the ten year average on year x. Unfortunately this is still highly susceptible to other things, like recessions, but I couldn't think of anything better. Suggestions welcome.

The twenty year average is much more stable, but the year x + 10 twenty year average would be pulled down by pre-AGI years, and so wouldn't work.