Resolves YES when at least one U.S. state has officially declared a state of emergency due to measles. If no such emergency is declared at any time in 2025, this question resolves NO in early January of 2026.
A state of emergency that only applies to some area within a state, but which is nevertheless declared by state officials, would be sufficient to resolve this YES. So would the declaration of a federal state of emergency due to measles.
I may trade on this question.
1,000https://manifold.markets/Twig/will-measles-become-endemic-in-the Traders on this question may also be interested in this other question about the current measles outbreak.
@Twig Based on Texas data, the current outbreak's growth seems to have leveled off.
CDC data also suggest the rapid growth observed through February and March has ended. Reporting delays may be a factor - but I update downwards here because I do not see a sustained exponential trend even in late February; instead, it seems linear at worst.
@Twig I have made an error in my analysis! I have corrected this now, removed early noisy datapoints, and added additional data points from the Wayback Machine's archive of the Texas DSHS reporting page. I am now less optimistic.
The Texas data has again failed to reassure me. But I have not compared against other past outbreaks, so perhaps the continued rise is expected and the outbreak will be contained soon.