This resolves based on the moment the winner of the New Hampshire republican primary is called by the New York Times. At that time, this market resolves YES if this linked market shows 50% or higher:
/DavidDavidson/if-trump-is-not-the-republican-nomi
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ220 | |
| 2 | Ṁ53 | |
| 3 | Ṁ41 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
@MartinRandall This market is not conditional and will not resolve NA under normal circumstances. Why is the title misleading?
@Tumbles linked market is not measuring "will Trump be likely to run as independent", it is measuring "will Trump be likely to run as independent IF X".
@Joshua Why did you unrank my market? This is very serious forecasting about Nikki Haley's potential impact on Trump's warpath
@Joshua That is if you assume prediction markets are inefficient.
It is sort of like whalebait, but it is at least tied to an actual real-world outcome. I don't think the default should be to unrank this, we should only unrank if we detect people whalebaiting to resolve this question.
@bohaska This is not tied to a real world outcome, but to a price of another market (that is very likely to resolve N/A) at specific point, that's the problem. 100% whalebait. Someone will just bump the price at that time and collect the yes (or push it down and collect no). And there is almost no risk because the other market will be N/A most likely.
@bohaska Yea, Trump will be republican nominee at like 95% and otherwise that referenced market is N/A. So someone will just push it up with no risk and collect profits here.