If Trump is not the Republican nominee will he run as an Independent?
34%
chance

If Trump either loses in the Republican primary or does not run as a Republican and does run as an Independent this will resolve YES.

If Trump either loses in the Republican primary and drops his candidacy or does not run this will resolve NO.

If Trump is the Republican nominee this will resolve N/A.

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ChaseGomes avatar

I think it's within the best interest of the GOP to nominate him. If not, he could take the MAGA-Republicans with him and take a considerable amount of the vote away from them if he runs with another party.

Conflux avatar
Conflux
sold Ṁ268 of NO

How would this market resolve if he runs as an Independent but drops out before Election Day?

DavidDavidson avatar

@Conflux If he's running as an independent with intention (political advertising & rallies) I'll resolve yes even if he doesn't make it to election day.

Conflux avatar
Conflux
is predicting NO at 40%
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ500 of NO

Tempting for his ego, but I feel like he and his advisors must at least know that this throws the election to the Democrat

ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
is predicting NO at 47%

If Trump is unable to run, does this resolve No or N/A? Like if he's convicted or dead

DavidDavidson avatar

@ahalekelly I'd resolve N/A in that case.