People might be forgetting about "sore loser" laws, which ban candidates from the general election ballot if they ran in and lost another party's primary. Big Trumpy states like Texas and Ohio have these laws.

< 1% that he runs intentionally as an independent. 1%-5% that some random party nominates him.

Trump's ego is so immense,
He'll run independent at his own expense.
He'll split the vote and cause a mess,
And leave the GOP in distress.

How would this market resolve if he runs not as an independent but as a third party e.g "MAGA party"?

I think it's within the best interest of the GOP to nominate him. If not, he could take the MAGA-Republicans with him and take a considerable amount of the vote away from them if he runs with another party.

How would this market resolve if he runs as an Independent but drops out before Election Day?

@Conflux If he's running as an independent with intention (political advertising & rallies) I'll resolve yes even if he doesn't make it to election day.

@DavidDavidson Got it

Tempting for his ego, but I feel like he and his advisors must at least know that this throws the election to the Democrat

@Conflux Well, considering the Reps, you gotta ask yourself a question: Do I prefer to get knifed in the back (the Reps) or stabbed in the front (the Dems)? If the Reps are going to betray me again, we might as well throw the election to the Dems. Why drive off the cliff at a sedate speed when you can do it at a hundred miles per hour?

If Trump is unable to run, does this resolve No or N/A? Like if he's convicted or dead

@ahalekelly I'd resolve N/A in that case.

@ahalekelly being convicted doesn't prevent a candidate from running. I remember the innocent days of 2022 when some still thought Trump could feel shame.