Basic
277
34k
2025
33%
chance

If Trump either loses in the Republican primary or does not run as a Republican and does run as an Independent this will resolve YES.

If Trump either loses in the Republican primary and drops his candidacy or does not run this will resolve NO.

If Trump is the Republican nominee this will resolve N/A.

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People might be forgetting about "sore loser" laws, which ban candidates from the general election ballot if they ran in and lost another party's primary. Big Trumpy states like Texas and Ohio have these laws.

< 1% that he runs intentionally as an independent. 1%-5% that some random party nominates him.

Trump's ego is so immense,
He'll run independent at his own expense.
He'll split the vote and cause a mess,
And leave the GOP in distress.

predicts NO

How would this market resolve if he runs not as an independent but as a third party e.g "MAGA party"?

I think it's within the best interest of the GOP to nominate him. If not, he could take the MAGA-Republicans with him and take a considerable amount of the vote away from them if he runs with another party.

How would this market resolve if he runs as an Independent but drops out before Election Day?

@Conflux If he's running as an independent with intention (political advertising & rallies) I'll resolve yes even if he doesn't make it to election day.

predicts NO

Tempting for his ego, but I feel like he and his advisors must at least know that this throws the election to the Democrat

@Conflux Well, considering the Reps, you gotta ask yourself a question: Do I prefer to get knifed in the back (the Reps) or stabbed in the front (the Dems)? If the Reps are going to betray me again, we might as well throw the election to the Dems. Why drive off the cliff at a sedate speed when you can do it at a hundred miles per hour?

predicts NO

If Trump is unable to run, does this resolve No or N/A? Like if he's convicted or dead

@ahalekelly I'd resolve N/A in that case.

@ahalekelly being convicted doesn't prevent a candidate from running. I remember the innocent days of 2022 when some still thought Trump could feel shame.

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