Will the share of US adults saying gender is determined by sex at birth be reported by Pew to have grown since 2022?

Pew Research Center has reported that 60% of US adults surveyed in May 2022 say that a person's gender (that is, whether a person is a man or woman) is determined by sex at birth:

[Edit 5/2024: updated link]


Furthermore, the share of US adults saying this grew from 54% in 2017 (and 56% in 2021).

At the next survey performed by Pew Research Center, using data collected in 2024 or 2025, will this share increase (61% or greater)?

Resolution details:

  • If the share is reported as 61% or greater, this market will resolve YES. If the share is reported as 60% or less, this market will resolve NO. Fractional numbers will be rounded to the nearest whole number.

  • If the next survey of this question by Pew Research Center uses data earlier than 2024, it will not be used to resolve this market.

  • If Pew Research Center does not publish results from a survey of this question by the end of 2025, this market will (sadly) resolve N/A (even if later Pew Research Center publishes results that were surveyed in 2024 or 2025).

Note that other polling entities ask a very similar question, probably with comparable results. For instance, see the Washington Post-KFF poll from 2022 which reports 57% of US adults say gender is determined by sex assigned at birth:


However, I will only use the next Pew Research Center survey to resolve this market.

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