Pew Research Center has reported that 60% of US adults surveyed in May 2022 say that a person's gender (that is, whether a person is a man or woman) is determined by sex at birth:
[Edit 5/2024: updated link]
Furthermore, the share of US adults saying this grew from 54% in 2017 (and 56% in 2021).
At the next survey performed by Pew Research Center, using data collected in 2024 or 2025, will this share increase (61% or greater)?
Resolution details:
If the share is reported as 61% or greater, this market will resolve YES. If the share is reported as 60% or less, this market will resolve NO. Fractional numbers will be rounded to the nearest whole number.
If the next survey of this question by Pew Research Center uses data earlier than 2024, it will not be used to resolve this market.
If Pew Research Center does not publish results from a survey of this question by the end of 2025, this market will (sadly) resolve N/A (even if later Pew Research Center publishes results that were surveyed in 2024 or 2025).
Note that other polling entities ask a very similar question, probably with comparable results. For instance, see the Washington Post-KFF poll from 2022 which reports 57% of US adults say gender is determined by sex assigned at birth:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2023/05/05/trans-poll-gop-politics-laws/
However, I will only use the next Pew Research Center survey to resolve this market.
1,000
3.00Update: Pew has surveyed this question April 8-14, 2024! They've published the result here:
However, they've only published the result using "registered voters" as the denominator, not "US adults" as I asked in the question. So we have some new information, but do not yet have a definitive answer!
For the record, the reported percentage of registered voters saying gender is determined by sex assigned at birth is 65% (using survey data from April 2024).