Will xAI overtake OpenAI as the leader in AI research by the end of 2024?
Plus
44
Ṁ7133Jan 1
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is a copy of this market except resolving at the beginning of 2025.
Resolution will depend on benchmark performances and the creator's judgement, which will take into account motor skills, computational efficiency, and subjective general intelligence. Expert opinion may also be considered if the creator deems them to be reasonably unbiased.
This market resolves at 50% if the performance on benchmarks is approximately equal (i.e., less than 3-5% performance and/or evaluated performance significantly overlaps.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
24% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
44% chance
Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024?
15% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
33% chance
Will general consensus be that OpenAI is no longer the lead AI company by end of 2024?
17% chance
Will interest in DeepMind overtake OpenAI at any point before 2025?
24% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
39% chance
Will another organization surpass OpenAI in the public sphere of awareness of AI progress by the end of 2024?
15% chance
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
21% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?