Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
143
489
Ṁ13KṀ1.9K
2025
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
More specifically:
A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery)
B) least 20% of randos know what they are
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@saulmunn any news? Your webpage looks cool! Fall is certainly approaching though :P
the value of manifold profits in the universe where this market resolves true is much greater than the value of manifold profits in the universe where it resolves false. There are meta-strategic reasons for this probability of this market to overstate the likelihood of this outcome.
@Adam I don't think this is true. In worlds where manifold fails, mana goes to 0, but otherwise mana should always be worth just below a cent
@toms I think in the world where 80 million Americans know about prediction markets, being a high profile early adopter with a track record of success will be a valuable signal. It's not the mana, it's the profit on your profile
More related questions
Related questions
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
46% chance
Which prediction markets will win?
At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?
Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?
19% chance
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
26% chance
Will Predictit Release a new market by the end of 2024?
74% chance
Will patio11 make a blog post about prediction markets by 2025?
20% chance
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?
60% chance
Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
30% chance
Will prediction markets feature on the 80,000 Hours podcast by the end of 2024?
74% chance