More specifically:
A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery)
B) least 20% of randos know what they are
Ian bought M$20 of YES15 days ago
big timeline energy
both A AND B must be true. I will sample the randos personally from a place that is NOT twitter.
Hold on, aren't we technically the 'randos'?
Is it "YES iff A and B" or "YES iff A or B"?
(Also: does sports/horse betting count for knowing about prediction markets? if so, B is much easier)