Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
Prediction market
Basic
146
Ṁ14k
2025
21%
chance
More specifically: A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery) B) least 20% of randos know what they are
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betting yes to motivate @toms and i to scale up opticforecasting.com 🤣

@saulmunn any news? Your webpage looks cool! Fall is certainly approaching though :P

the value of manifold profits in the universe where this market resolves true is much greater than the value of manifold profits in the universe where it resolves false. There are meta-strategic reasons for this probability of this market to overstate the likelihood of this outcome.

predicts NO

@Adam I don't think this is true. In worlds where manifold fails, mana goes to 0, but otherwise mana should always be worth just below a cent

predicts YES

@toms I think in the world where 80 million Americans know about prediction markets, being a high profile early adopter with a track record of success will be a valuable signal. It's not the mana, it's the profit on your profile

predicts NO

For second criteria, are you polling the world wide general populace?

big timeline energy
both A AND B must be true. I will sample the randos personally from a place that is NOT twitter.
Hold on, aren't we technically the 'randos'?
Is it "YES iff A and B" or "YES iff A or B"? (Also: does sports/horse betting count for knowing about prediction markets? if so, B is much easier)

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