Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
Basic
145
Ṁ14k2025
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
More specifically:
A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery)
B) least 20% of randos know what they are
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@Adam I don't think this is true. In worlds where manifold fails, mana goes to 0, but otherwise mana should always be worth just below a cent
@toms I think in the world where 80 million Americans know about prediction markets, being a high profile early adopter with a track record of success will be a valuable signal. It's not the mana, it's the profit on your profile
Related questions
Related questions
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
50% chance
Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?
28% chance
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Which prediction markets will win?
At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?
Will patio11 make a blog post about prediction markets by 2025?
29% chance
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?
63% chance
Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
39% chance
Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊
26% chance
Which one is the most enjoyable prediction market? (2025)
Will prediction markets be able to predict the month any given person would die by > 95% by 2035?
17% chance