MANIFOLD
Which states will vote before Super Tuesday in the 2028 Democratic Party primaries?
1
Ṁ300Ṁ60
2028
50%
Nevada
41%
Delaware
41%
Virginia
41%
New Mexico
41%
Georgia
41%
Iowa
41%
New Hampshire
41%
South Carolina
41%
Michigan
41%
lIIinois
41%
North Carolina
34%
Arizona

Resolution criteria

Market resolves YES for every state that holds a primary or caucus before Super Tuesday. A state resolves NO if it votes after or on Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday will be counted as "the United States Democratic presidential primary election day when the greatest number of U.S. states hold primary elections and caucuses." The primary or caucus has to be approved by the DNC, so something like New Hampshire's 2024 primary wouldn't count. If the DNC decides to hold a national-primary or something like that, then I'll just N/A every option. Options resolve when a state is confirmed to be voting or on Super Tuesday NOT when the DNC releases a schedule.

Background

Dems brace for battle over 2028 primary calendar to ‘explode’ - Politico
States push for the front of the line in Democrats' 2028 presidential contest - NBC
Inside Democrats’ Brewing Debate Over Which States Should Vote First in 2028 - NYT

Market context
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