What stage will the next Starship launch will make it to before failure?
10
80
resolved Nov 18
1.0%
Launch
5%
Max Q
8%
Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO)
5%
Stage separation
1.0%
Stage Separation
44%
Second Stage Ignition
1.0%
Booster Boostback Burn
12%
Second Stage Engine Cutoff (SECO)
7%
Booster Ocean Landing
16%
Second Stage Landing

Stage order [& definition if needed]

Launch [>100m elevation gain]

Max Q

Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO)

Stage Separation

Second Stage Ignition

Booster Boostback Burn

Second Stage Engine Cutoff (SECO)

Booster Ocean Landing

Second Stage Landing

For all of the above stages, Starship has to complete the stage successfully before failing. For example, if the second stage separates succesfully but then the engines fail to light, this resolves to "stage separation".

Failure is defined as anything that prevents the second stage from executing the planned mission profile. Loss of the booster after separation is not considered a failure for the overall mission. If things get hairy but the second stage limps its way to the desired target, I'll call that a success.

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Looks like the second stage didn't quite make it to SECO, so resolving this to "Second Stage Ignition"

https://youtu.be/hF2C7xE9Mj4?si=cSzYKy28oeJPZGr3

This is a great question idea, I made a variant with some tweaks (e.g. so I can make booster and second stage events independent)

Some of these options are not sequential; the booster boostback burn is unrelated to SECO. If the boostback burn fails even though seco succeeds, would this market resolve to boostback burn according to your ordering?

@Mqrius I'm calling failure based on the second stage, so if the booster fails during boostback but second stage continues on, then the second stage successfully made it through the boostback stage. If the second stage lights, then the booster successfully does boostback, then the second stage explodes before SECO, I would resolve that to "Boostback".

What it will resolve to if it will be fully successful, including a soft simulated landing?

@Berg I will resolve that to "Second Stage Landing", as it made it to that stage without failing. Good point that it could go entirely without failure.