Will there be a fatality of any kind attributed, at least in part, to aircraft controller error before 2025.
Basic
17
724
2025
32%
chance

See https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/02/business/air-traffic-controllers-safety.html

for the inspiration of this market.

The event needs to occur in the U.S. by air traffic controllers monitored by the F.A.A.

I will use media reports to determine this market. If there are some weird edge cases, I’m thinking of using a GPT to read coverage from major news sources to determine the answer. Still, as there is some subjectivity in judging this market, I will not bet.

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Does this include chartered planes, private planes, or scheduled airlines only?

@nikki It includes any air accident (chartered, private etc) where findings show that a mistake by air traffic controllers contributed to the accident.

Changed this market about ten minutes after putting it up because I didn’t stipulate that it had to in the U.S.

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